On 1 March 2021, how many states will have a number of daily new COVID-19 cases per 100k residents of 75.0 or higher?

Started Dec 23, 2020 10:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2021 08:01AM UTC

As the U.S. tries to reduce COVID-19 cases, the question remains whether the U.S. health care system can handle the load (CDC). The outcome will be determined using data from https://covidactnow.org at 5:00PM ET on 1 March 2021. See the table "Compare," set to "States," under "DAILY NEW CASES PER 100K." For the purposes of this question, the District of Columbia is considered a state.

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The question closed "Zero" with a closing date of 1 March 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Zero 100%
Between 1 and 3 0%
Between 4 and 6 0%
Between 7 and 9 0%
10 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 115
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 492
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.579
2.
-0.542
3.
-0.536
5.
-0.495

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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