Started Jan 29, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 31, 2021 08:01AM UTC

Will the United States report more deaths attributed to COVID-19 as of 31 December 2021 than will the European Union?

The outcome will be determined using deaths data as reported by WHO for the United States and for those countries that were EU member states as of 1 January 2021 (WHO, see 'Deaths - cumulative total', European Union). Data for 2021 will be evaluated at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 January 2022 and inclusive of deaths before this question's launch.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 187
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 818
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.013
2.
-0.013
3.
-0.012
4.
-0.012
5.
-0.012

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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