Started Jun 27, 2021 03:00AM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2021 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

How many opioid overdoses resulting in death will occur in the US in 2026?

Tags
Society   Health  
Challenges

Deaths attributed to opioid overdoses reached a record high in 2019 (National Institute on Drug Abuse). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC's WONDER database (CDC - WONDER). To access the relevant data as of the launch of this question, click the "I Agree" button, navigate to the "Request Form" tab, change "Group Results By" to "Year." Next under "6. Select underlying cause of death," select UCD - ICD-10 Codes and expand the section on "V01-Y90 (External causes of morbidity and mortality)" to find and select the following codes: X40, X41, X42, X43, X44, X60, X61, X62, X63, X64, X85, Y10, Y11, Y12, Y13, and Y14. Under "7. Select multiple cause of death," select "MCD - ICD-10 Codes" and expand the section on "S00-T98..." to find and select T40.0, T40.1, T40.2, T40.3, T40.4, and T40.6. Move these codes to the top box on the left, "Select records with any of these items," and then click "Send." As of this question's launch, the total for 2019 was 49,860 deaths.

This question will be suspended on 1 October 2021. While forecasts on this question may be evaluated in the years to come, they will not be scored.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Fewer than 25,000 0.00% +0.00%
Between 25,000 and 40,000, inclusive 14.00% +0.00%
More than 40,000 but fewer than 55,000 29.00% +0.00%
Between 55,000 and 70,000, inclusive 41.00% +0.00%
More than 70,000 16.00% +0.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username