Started Jul 16, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 12, 2021 08:01AM UTC

How many total confirmed cases of COVID-19 will the World Health Organization (WHO) report for Brazil as of 12 November 2021?

Brazil is struggling to bring COVID-19 under control amidst continued domestic political acrimony over the response (The Week, BBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by WHO (WHO). The available data showing total confirmed cases for Brazil through and including 12 November 2021 will be assessed on 18 November 2021.

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The question closed "Fewer than 22 million" with a closing date of 13 November 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 22 million 99%
Between 22 million and 24 million, inclusive 1%
More than 24 million but fewer than 26 million 0%
Between 26 million and 28 million, inclusive 0%
More than 28 million 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 82
average for questions older than 6 months: 258
Number of Forecasts 551
average for questions older than 6 months: 687
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

3.
-0.304
4.
-0.3
5.
-0.219

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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