Started Aug 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 04, 2022 07:01AM UTC

asks:

Will Sir Keir Starmer face a formal challenge for the leadership of the Labour Party before 4 April 2022?

Sir Keir was elected to replace Jeremy Corbyn as the leader of the UK's Labour Party in April 2020 and has faced dissention within his party's ranks (Sky News, Guardian, Sky News). The Labour Party requires that a challenger or challengers be nominated by 20% of all Labour Party MPs (Institute for Government, Labour Party Rule Book 2020, see Chapter 4, Clause II).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 4 April 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 204
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 401
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
3.
-0.005
4.
-0.005
5.
-0.005

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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