Started Sep 08, 2021 04:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 19, 2021 07:01AM UTC

Will the rate of new daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100k people in Massachusetts be higher on 19 October 2021 than it was on 7 September 2021?

Tags
Health  
Challenges

The outcome will be determined using data as provided by 91-DIVOC (91-DIVOC, parameters are set with the link). Data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 22 October 2021.

*This question uses an experimental framing. Please read each answer bin carefully before making a forecast.

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NOTE 10 September 2021: The question is concerned with the average over the past seven days, as reflected in the resolution source (e.g., 23.7 on 2 September 2021).

NOTE 15 October 2021: On 22 October 2021, only 7-day averages as provided by 19-DIVOC will be used for determining whether the average rose above 28.5 or below 18.5.


The question closed "No, having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts" with a closing date of 19 October 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts 16%
Yes, but without having first fallen below 18.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts 0%
No, having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts 84%
No, but without having first risen above 28.5 new cases per 100k people in Massachusetts 0%

No. of
Forecasters

50

Forecast
Count

314

Crowd Brier Score

0.33


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.426
2.
-0.426
3.
-0.407
4.
-0.32
5.
-0.255

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