Started Sep 10, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 31, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 March 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?

The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 7 September 2021, Biden's approval rating was 45.3%. The data for 31 March 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 April 2022.

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The question closed "Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive" with a closing date of 31 March 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 40.0% 1%
Between 40.0% and 45.0%, inclusive 99%
Higher than 45.0% but lower than 50.0% 0%
Between 50.0% and 55.0%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 55.0% 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 305
average for questions older than 6 months: 259
Number of Forecasts 1554
average for questions older than 6 months: 688
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.098
2.
-0.095
3.
-0.085
5.
-0.081

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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