Started Sep 17, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 26, 2021 03:00PM UTC

The Economist and belikewater ask:

When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next reach or exceed 200,000?

The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC (CDC). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last breached 200,000 on 18 January 2021. Data will be accessed for resolution no later than 6 May 2022.

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The question closed "Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021" with a closing date of 26 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 November 2021 0%
Between 1 November 2021 and 31 December 2021 100%
Between 1 January 2022 and 28 February 2022 0%
Between 1 March 2022 and 30 April 2022 0%
Not before 1 May 2022 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 122
average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 674
average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.82
2.
-0.796
3.
-0.795
4.
-0.722
5.
-0.611

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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