Dubai Future Experts Candidates ask:
What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?
Closed Mar 31, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The outcome will be determined using data from AirNow (AirNow.gov). To access the resolution data, go to https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/, choose "Dubai" under "Select a City," and click on the "Historical" tab. Click on the file for "2022 PM2.5 YTD," when available. Add all valid data points for the column titled "AQI" (invalid entries are coded as -999) with a "3" under "Month" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in March 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were, respectively, 126.05, 101.03, 94.58, and 100.49. This question will be resolved when complete data for the month of March 2022 are first available. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 85.00 | 0% | |
| Between 85.00 and 95.00, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 95.00 but less than 105.00 | 7% | |
| Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive | 93% | |
| More than 115.00 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 49 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 288 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
