Started Oct 01, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 31, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Dubai Future Experts Candidates ask:

What will be the average Air Quality Index in Dubai in March 2022?

The outcome will be determined using data from AirNow (AirNow.gov). To access the resolution data, go to https://www.airnow.gov/international/us-embassies-and-consulates/, choose "Dubai" under "Select a City," and click on the "Historical" tab. Click on the file for "2022 PM2.5 YTD," when available. Add all valid data points for the column titled "AQI" (invalid entries are coded as -999) with a "3" under "Month" and divide the sum by the number of valid data points. Averages in March 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 were, respectively, 126.05, 101.03, 94.58, and 100.49. This question will be resolved when complete data for the month of March 2022 are first available. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 85.00 0%
Between 85.00 and 95.00, inclusive 0%
More than 95.00 but less than 105.00 7%
Between 105.00 and 115.00, inclusive 93%
More than 115.00 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions older than 6 months: 254
Number of Forecasts 288
Average for questions older than 6 months: 683
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.3
2.
-0.26
3.
-0.189
5.
-0.154

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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