Started Oct 20, 2021 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 27, 2021 03:00PM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will total cases of COVID-19 in Canada reach 2 million or more, according to the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC)?

While COVID-19 cases in Canada have begun to fall again, concerns remain for a resurgence with the onset of winter (CBC). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by PHAC (PHAC). Daily number data can be obtained by clicking the ".CSV" button to the right of the primary graphic on the linked PHAC page. See daily number data ("numtoday") associated with daily entries for "Canada" under "prname." The question will close on available data no later than 26 April 2022.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Between 24 December and 22 January 2022" with a closing date of 27 December 2021.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 24 December 2021 0%
Between 24 December and 22 January 2022 100%
Between 23 January 2022 and 21 February 2022 0%
Between 22 February and 23 March 2022 0%
Between 24 March 2022 and 22 April 2022 0%
Not before 23 April 2022 0%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 57
average for questions older than 6 months: 259
Number of Forecasts 348
average for questions older than 6 months: 688
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.582
2.
-0.512
3.
-0.434
4.
-0.409

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username