Started Dec 03, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 23, 2021 11:00PM UTC

When will COVID-19 cases caused by the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) exceed 100,000 in the UK?

The discovery of the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529) led to new travel restrictions imposed by the UK, though there are already reports of cases caused by Omicron in the country (Guardian, BBC, UK Health Security Agency - Technical briefing). The outcome will be determined by total confirmed and probable case data from UK Health Security Agency, published weekly here: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers. For example, as of 24 November 2021, there were 1,370,519 confirmed and probable cases of the Delta variant (Variants: distribution of case data - 26 November 2021). The question would close, if not before, upon the release of data up to 23 March 2022, which is expected on 25 March 2022.

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The question closed "Before 30 December 2021" with a closing date of 23 December 2021.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 30 December 2021 100%
Between 30 December 2021 and 26 January 2022 0%
Between 27 January 2022 and 23 February 2022 0%
Between 24 February 2022 and 23 March 2022 0%
Not before 24 March 2022 0%

No. of
Forecasters

87

Forecast
Count

333

Crowd Brier Score

0.2074


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.192
3.
-0.185
4.
-0.163
5.
-0.155

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