Started Dec 30, 2021 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 03, 2022 03:00PM UTC

When will the 7-day moving average of daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reported to the CDC next be 50,000 or lower?

The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the CDC (CDC). The red line is the 7-day moving average of cases, which last which was last under 50,000 on 22 July 2021. Due to reporting lags, data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least five calendar days later (e.g., data for 1 January 2022 wouldn't be evaluated until 6 January 2022), and data will be accessed for resolution no later than 5 August 2022. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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The question closed "Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022" with a closing date of 3 March 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 1 February 2022 0%
Between 1 February 2022 and 31 March 2022 100%
Between 1 April 2022 and 31 May 2022 0%
Between 1 June 2022 and 31 July 2022 0%
Not before 1 August 2022 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 130
Average for questions older than 6 months: 257
Number of Forecasts 549
Average for questions older than 6 months: 686
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.41
2.
-0.405
4.
-0.388
5.
-0.386

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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