Started
Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC
•
Closing
Jan 04, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?
Speculation abounds as to whether Justice Stephen Breyer may retire in 2022 (NPR, CNN). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 3 January 2023 would not count (e.g., Supreme Court).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023 | 53.00% | +31.00% |
| Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023 | 12.00% | +2.00% |
| No | 35.00% | -33.00% |