Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?

Started Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 07, 2022 06:10PM UTC

Speculation abounds as to whether Justice Stephen Breyer may retire in 2022 (NPR, CNN). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 3 January 2023 would not count (e.g., Supreme Court).

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The question closed "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023" with a closing date of 7 April 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023 99%
Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023 1%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 121
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193
Number of Forecasts 390
Average for questions older than 6 months: 554
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.113806
4.
-0.11071
5.
-0.108956

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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