Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?
Closed Apr 07, 2022 06:10PM UTC
Speculation abounds as to whether Justice Stephen Breyer may retire in 2022 (NPR, CNN). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 3 January 2023 would not count (e.g., Supreme Court).
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The question closed "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023" with a closing date of 7 April 2022.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
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Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023 | 99% | |
Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023 | 1% | |
No | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 121 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 193 | |
Number of Forecasts | 390 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 554 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |