Started Jan 14, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Apr 07, 2022 06:10PM UTC

Before 4 January 2023, will a United States Supreme Court seat be vacated?

Speculation abounds as to whether Justice Stephen Breyer may retire in 2022 (NPR, CNN). For the purposes of this question, an announced retirement effective upon the confirmation of a successor would count as a seat being vacated, though an announced retirement effective as of a date after 3 January 2023 would not count (e.g., Supreme Court).

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The question closed "Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023" with a closing date of 7 April 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and a replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023 99%
Yes, but no replacement Justice will be confirmed by the Senate before 4 January 2023 1%
No 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 121
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 223
Number of Forecasts 390
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 547
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.114
3.
-0.111
4.
-0.111
5.
-0.109

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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