At close of business on 30 December 2022, will Apple be the most valuable publicly traded company in the world?

Started Jan 28, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 30, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

On 31 July 2020, Apple passed Saudi Aramco to become the world's most valuable publicly traded company, though Microsoft briefly held the title in 2021 (CNBC, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using market capitalization data as provided by the Companies Market Cap website on 30 December 2022 at approximately 5:00PM ET (Companies Market Cap).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes, the most valuable in the world" with a closing date of 30 December 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, the most valuable in the world 81%
No, but the most valuable in the United States 14%
No 5%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 184
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 738
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.158129
2.
-0.158129
4.
-0.157891
5.
-0.157755

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username