Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will doctors attempt an organ xenotransplantation (organ transplant from a nonhuman animal to a human) on a live human patient in the European Union before 1 January 2024?

Started Feb 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

In early 2022, doctors in Maryland transplanted a genetically modified pig heart into a human patient (NBC News, CBS Baltimore). For the purposes of this question, an "organ" would be a heart, intestine, kidney, liver, lung, or pancreas (Cleveland Clinic). The xenotransplantation attempt must take place in an EU member state to count, though the nationality of the doctors and patient would be immaterial. For information on the current state of EU policy on the matter, see:

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 31.28% +0.00% -1.80% -6.51%
No 68.72% -0.00% +1.80% +6.51%

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