Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will doctors attempt an organ xenotransplantation (organ transplant from a nonhuman animal to a human) on a live human patient in the European Union before 1 January 2024?

Started Feb 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

In early 2022, doctors in Maryland transplanted a genetically modified pig heart into a human patient (NBC News, CBS Baltimore). For the purposes of this question, an "organ" would be a heart, intestine, kidney, liver, lung, or pancreas (Cleveland Clinic). The xenotransplantation attempt must take place in an EU member state to count, though the nationality of the doctors and patient would be immaterial. For information on the current state of EU policy on the matter, see: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/697212/EPRS_ATA(2022)697212_EN.pdf.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 16.11%
No 83.89%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 159
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 441
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.248
2.
-0.248
3.
-0.248
4.
-0.248
5.
-0.247

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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