Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will doctors attempt an organ xenotransplantation (organ transplant from a nonhuman animal to a human) on a live human patient in the European Union before 1 January 2024?
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
In early 2022, doctors in Maryland transplanted a genetically modified pig heart into a human patient (NBC News, CBS Baltimore). For the purposes of this question, an "organ" would be a heart, intestine, kidney, liver, lung, or pancreas (Cleveland Clinic). The xenotransplantation attempt must take place in an EU member state to count, though the nationality of the doctors and patient would be immaterial. For information on the current state of EU policy on the matter, see: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/697212/EPRS_ATA(2022)697212_EN.pdf.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 16.11% | |
| No | 83.89% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 159 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 188 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 441 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 545 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
