Started Feb 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC

asks:

Will the Conservative Party hold a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson in 2022?

Prime Minister Johnson is facing pushback from within his own Conservative Party in the wake of various scandals, including challenges to his leadership of the party (Sky News, France 24). If 15% of the Conservative Party members in parliament submit letters of no confidence to the "1922 Committee," a party leadership vote would be triggered (Sky News).

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The question closed "Yes, but it will not pass" with a closing date of 6 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and it will pass 10%
Yes, but it will not pass 26%
No 64%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 216
average for questions in their first 6 months: 223
Number of Forecasts 736
average for questions in their first 6 months: 548
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.044
2.
-1.007
3.
-0.984
4.
-0.966
5.
-0.961

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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