asks:

Will the Conservative Party hold a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson in 2022?

Started Feb 04, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 06, 2022 08:00PM UTC

Prime Minister Johnson is facing pushback from within his own Conservative Party in the wake of various scandals, including challenges to his leadership of the party (Sky News, France 24). If 15% of the Conservative Party members in parliament submit letters of no confidence to the "1922 Committee," a party leadership vote would be triggered (Sky News).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Yes, but it will not pass" with a closing date of 6 June 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes, and it will pass 10%
Yes, but it will not pass 26%
No 64%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 216
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 736
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.044
2.
-1.007
3.
-0.984
4.
-0.966
5.
-0.961

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username