The outcome will be determined using the closing price per barrel as reported by CNBC for 8 March 2022 and 3 June 2022 (CNBC).

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NOTE 16 March 2022: For the purposes of this question, the closing price for 8 March 2022 as reported by CNBC for pacific time was $111.14.

Regarding the Brent crude oil price question within the Noise Forecasting Challenge (“Will the closing price of a barrel of Brent crude oil be higher on 3 June 2022 than it was on 8 March 2022?”), we made a sourcing switch just before sending out the survey questions, which we now know reports data inconsistently. Unfortunately, and with our sincerest apologies, we will have to void the question because some forecasters saw drastically different data than others for 8 March 2022. As for your responses on this question within the Noise Forecasting Challenge, both the survey forecasts and the forecasts on GJ Open, we will evaluate those response data but won't score that question. In other words, your forecasts on Brent crude price will not count as to the outcome of the challenge or your ranking once the challenge is completed, and rather we will use the remaining 14 questions for scoring and ranking. We thank you for your understanding.