Started Mar 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jun 08, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Between 8 March 2022 and 7 June 2022, will President Biden's approval rating fall below 38.5%?

The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). The question would close as of the day for which a daily estimate figure is below 38.5%, but only after confirming the daily estimate figure at least three days later.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 8 June 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 154
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 223
Number of Forecasts 558
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 547
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.006
2.
-0.006
4.
-0.006
5.
-0.006

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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