Started Sep 08, 2015 08:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 25, 2015 09:00PM UTC

How many seats in Poland's Sejm will PiS (Law and Justice) win in the upcoming parliamentary elections?

A PiS victory in Poland's parliamentary elections has significant implications for Poland's relationship with the EU and Russia (http://time.com/3995688/poland-election-foreign-policy/ ; www.politico.eu/article/duda-tusk-poland-foreign-policy-germany-nato/ ). The election is scheduled for 25 October 2015.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Majority 22%
Plurality 78%
Not a Plurality 0%

No. of
Forecasters

125

Forecast
Count

374

Crowd Brier Score

0.5585


Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.544
2.
-0.424
3.
-0.422
4.
-0.398
5.
-0.394

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username