Will the UK or EU trigger Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol before 15 May 2022?

Started Mar 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 15, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Protocol is an agreement made during Brexit negotiations intended to avoid a "hard border" between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland, in which Article 16 governs either party taking unilateral action (BBC). The question would close upon the UK or EU notifying the Joint Committee under the terms of Annex 7 of the Protocol (Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 15 May 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 135
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 386
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.000869
2.
-0.000869
3.
-0.000869

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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