Started Mar 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Mar 17, 2022 04:00PM UTC

Between 10 March 2022 and 29 April 2022, will the average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US be higher than 4.15%?

The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 17 March 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 53.00%
No 47.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 55
average for questions in their first 6 months: 223
Number of Forecasts 78
average for questions in their first 6 months: 548
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.548
3.
-0.503
4.
-0.486
5.
-0.403

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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