Started Jul 05, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jul 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2017?

The Iranian nuclear deal established a Joint Commission to adjudicate disputes between the IAEA and Iran over access to undeclared nuclear facilities (Iran Watch, Washington Post). Recommended Questions: Before 18 October 2016, will the US announce that it is opening a consulate or embassy in Iran? Will Bahrain, Qatar, or the UAE return an ambassador to Iran before 18 October 2016? Will the United States remove Iran from the list of countries identified as state sponsors of terrorism before 18 October 2016?


To date there is no evidence of any IAEA access disputes being referred to the Joint Commission. This question was closed as "b) No" with an end date of 30 June 2017. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 198
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 1285
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.01
4.
-0.01

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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