Started Mar 18, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed May 21, 2022 08:26PM UTC

The Economist asks:

Will a Boeing Starliner spacecraft successfully dock with the International Space Station (ISS) before 15 June 2022?

After Boeing's first attempt to get its new spacecraft to dock with the ISS failed, the company is planning another attempt in May 2022 (EconomistSpaceflight Now, Space).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 20 May 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99.00%
No 1.00%

Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 86
average for questions in their first 6 months: 223
Number of Forecasts 250
average for questions in their first 6 months: 548
Accuracy of participants
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters about average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Tip: Mention someone by typing @username