Started Mar 25, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 01, 2022 02:00AM UTC

The Economist asks:

As of 30 September 2022, will the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) rank higher than all other German parties in polling of national parliament voting intention, according to Politico?

The SPD-led German government faces a number of challenges in 2022, including lifting COVID restrictions, the war in Ukraine, and various domestic matters (Economist, Deutsche Welle, The Local). The outcome will be determined using data for 30 September 2022 as provided in Politico's "Poll of Polls" page for Germany no earlier than 5 October 2022 (Politico Poll of Polls - Germany, select "1 Year" and "Kalman Smooth").

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 30 September 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.36%
No 98.64%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 175
Average for questions older than 6 months: 245
Number of Forecasts 469
Average for questions older than 6 months: 673
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

3.
-0.18
4.
-0.175
5.
-0.168

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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