Started Mar 25, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

The Economist asks:

As of 30 September 2022, will the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) rank higher than all other German parties in polling of national parliament voting intention, according to Politico?

The SPD-led German government faces a number of challenges in 2022, including lifting COVID restrictions, the war in Ukraine, and various domestic matters (Economist, Deutsche Welle, The Local). The outcome will be determined using data for 30 September 2022 as provided in Politico's "Poll of Polls" page for Germany no earlier than 5 October 2022 (Politico Poll of Polls - Germany, select "1 Year" and "Kalman Smooth").

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Yes 15.00% -0.50%
No 85.00% +0.50%

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