Started Apr 15, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Aug 26, 2022 07:01AM UTC

David Epstein asks:

What will be Twitter's end-of-day market capitalization on 26 August 2022?

Elon Musk caused a stir by announcing that he had bought 9.2% of all outstanding shares of Twitter, leading to speculation that he may be planning a move to change the organization (The Verge, NBC News). The outcome will be determined by the end-of-day "Market Cap" figure as reported by CNBC after the NYSE closes on Friday 26 August 2022 (CNBC).

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The question closed "Between $24 billion and $32 billion, inclusive" with a closing date of 26 August 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $24 billion 0%
Between $24 billion and $32 billion, inclusive 65%
More than $32 billion but less than $40 billion 31%
Between $40 billion and $48 billion, inclusive 4%
More than $48 billion but less than $56 billion 0%
Between $56 billion and $64 billion, inclusive 0%
More than $64 billion 0%
Twitter will cease to be a publicly traded company on or before 26 August 2022 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 64
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 634
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 538
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.165
3.
-0.157
4.
-0.139

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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