Started Apr 29, 2022 08:15PM UTC   •   Closed May 28, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between 2 May 2022 and 27 May 2022, will the 7-day moving average of new daily cases of COVID-19 in the US reach or exceed 120,000?

The US saw a rise in COVID cases in April 2022 (Axios). The question will be suspended on 27 May 2022 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CDC (CDC COVID Data Tracker). Data for specific dates will not be evaluated for resolution until at least four calendar days later (e.g., data for 10 May 2022 would not be evaluated until 14 May 2022).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 28 May 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.50%
No 97.50%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 64
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 216
Number of Forecasts 262
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 538
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.24
3.
-0.24
4.
-0.24
5.
-0.24

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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