How many total hurricanes will occur in the Atlantic Ocean in the 2022 hurricane season, according to the National Hurricane Center?

Started May 06, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 01, 2022 08:01AM UTC
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Researchers at Colorado State University have predicted an "above-normal" Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2022 to 30 November 2022 (NPR, CSU Tropical Weather & Climate Research). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2022 and the outcome determined using categorizations provided by the National Hurricane Center no later than 16 December 2022 (National Hurricane Center, National Hurricane Center - Reports).

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The question closed "Between 7 and 9" with a closing date of 1 December 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
3 or fewer 0%
Between 4 and 6 3%
Between 7 and 9 96%
Between 10 and 12 1%
Between 13 and 15 0%
16 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 99
Average for questions older than 6 months: 235
Number of Forecasts 785
Average for questions older than 6 months: 651
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.092
2.
-0.077
4.
-0.068
5.
-0.066

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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