What percentage of US retail sales will be made online in the fourth quarter of 2022?

Started May 23, 2022 09:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The COVID-19 pandemic drove an increase in online shopping in the US, but whether increases will continue apace is an open question (Digital Commerce 360, Supermarket News). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted "Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales: Total and E-commerce" data when first released by the US Census Bureau for the fourth quarter of 2022, expected in February 2023 (Census.gov, see "Latest Quarterly E-Commerce Report"). For the fourth quarter of 2021, the Bureau reported Adjusted E-commerce as a Percent of Total as 14.5% (Census.gov - Q2 2021 Table, xls file download).

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This question replaces #2128, which was voided due to major changes in the data provided by the Census Bureau.

The question closed "More than 14.5% but less than 15.5%" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 13.5% 1%
Between 13.5% and 14.5%, inclusive 14%
More than 14.5% but less than 15.5% 56%
Between 15.5% and 16.5%, inclusive 16%
More than 16.5% 13%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 34
Average for questions older than 6 months: 235
Number of Forecasts 216
Average for questions older than 6 months: 651
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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