What percentage of US retail sales will be made online in the fourth quarter of 2022?
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
The COVID-19 pandemic drove an increase in online shopping in the US, but whether increases will continue apace is an open question (Digital Commerce 360, Supermarket News). The outcome will be determined using seasonally adjusted "Estimated Quarterly U.S. Retail Sales: Total and E-commerce" data when first released by the US Census Bureau for the fourth quarter of 2022, expected in February 2023 (Census.gov, see "Latest Quarterly E-Commerce Report"). For the fourth quarter of 2021, the Bureau reported Adjusted E-commerce as a Percent of Total as 14.5% (Census.gov - Q2 2021 Table, xls file download).
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This question replaces #2128, which was voided due to major changes in the data provided by the Census Bureau.
The question closed "More than 14.5% but less than 15.5%" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
|Possible Answer||Correct?||Final Crowd Forecast|
|Less than 13.5%||1%|
|Between 13.5% and 14.5%, inclusive||14%|
|More than 14.5% but less than 15.5%||56%|
|Between 15.5% and 16.5%, inclusive||16%|
|More than 16.5%||13%|
Crowd Forecast Profile
|Number of Forecasters||34|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 235|
|Number of Forecasts||216|
|Average for questions older than 6 months: 651|
|Participants in this question vs. all forecasters||worse than average|