Started Jul 08, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed

Will climate change be a cause of human extinction by 2100?

For the purposes of this question, consider "cause" to mean that climate change will be a necessary, but not necessarily sufficient, cause of human extinction. In other words, climate change would be either an INUS condition (insufficient, but necessary part of an unnecessary but sufficient condition) for human extinction or sufficient on its own to cause human extinction (Simple English Wikipedia).

This question will be suspended on 1 October 2022. While forecasts on this question may be evaluated in the years to come, they will not be scored.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

This question has been suspended.
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username