Assuming that the Earth's global average surface temperature increases by 7°F in 2100 as compared to 1880, what will be the decadal average of annual deaths caused by drought in the world from 2091 to 2100, according to Our World in Data (OWiD)?

Started Jul 12, 2022 09:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 16, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Measurements of global average surface temperature have increased since the 1880 (, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the OWiD (OWiD, see "Drought"). For 2020, there were 45 deaths caused by drought.

This question will be suspended on 15 October 2022. While forecasts on this question may be evaluated in the years to come, they will not be scored.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

This question has been voided by an administrator and is no longer active.

Unscored CC Challenge question
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username