Started Jul 12, 2022 09:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 16, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Will climate change be a cause of human extinction by 2100?

For the purposes of this question, consider "cause" to mean that climate change will be a necessary, but not necessarily sufficient, cause of human extinction. In other words, climate change would be either an INUS condition (insufficient, but necessary part of an unnecessary but sufficient condition) for human extinction or sufficient on its own to cause human extinction (Simple English Wikipedia).

This question will be suspended on 15 October 2022. While forecasts on this question may be evaluated in the years to come, they will not be scored.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 10.75% +0.03% +0.17% +1.14%
No 89.25% -0.03% -0.17% -1.14%

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