Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan cease to be President of Turkey before 1 August 2017?

Started Aug 02, 2016 05:00PM UTC
Closed Aug 01, 2017 06:59AM UTC

In the wake of a failed coup attempt in July 2016, Erdogan has aimed to consolidate his power (BBC, NY Times, Bloomberg). In the event that Erdogan reportedly disappears or flees the capital, Good Judgment will observe a three-week waiting period, at the end of which the question will close retroactively to the date of his disappearance or exodus. If Erdogan returns in the interim, the question will remain open. Recommended Questions Will the EU lift visa requirements for Turkish citizens before the end of 2016? Will Nawaz Sharif, whose family was recently implicated in the Panama Papers, cease to be Prime Minister of Pakistan in 2016? Will Dilma Rousseff cease to be President of Brazil before 1 January 2017? Will either Turkey or Russia officially suspend or cancel the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project before the end of 2016? Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Turkey before 1 January 2017?
As of 1 August, Recep Tayyip Erdogan remained President of Turkey. This question closed as "b) no" with an end date of 1 August. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 561
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 1955
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.001237
2.
-0.001237
3.
-0.001214
4.
-0.001214
5.
-0.001214

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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