Started Aug 02, 2022 10:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 01, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Assuming that the Earth's global average surface temperature increases by 7°C in 2100 as compared to 1880, what will be the decadal average of annual heat-related deaths in the world from 2091 to 2100?

The outcome will be determined using data reported by Global Burden of Disease (Global Burden of Disease (registration required), Global Burden of Disease - Visual Hub). For example, there were 307,846 heat-related deaths in 2019 (Good Judgment - Excel Download, see the "val" column). Please note that the figures in the resolution source are different from those published in The Lancet (The Lancet, The Lancet). For historical data, please see: Global Burden of Disease, parameters set in link (registration required).

This question will be suspended on 1 October 2022. While forecasts on this question may be evaluated in the years to come, they will not be scored.

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NOTE 3 August 2022: One degree Celsius is equal to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, meaning that 7°C = 12.6°F.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Fewer than 350,000 100.00% +0.00% +3.00%
Between 350,000 and 500,000, inclusive 0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
More than 500,000 but fewer than 800,000 0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 800,000 and 1.2 million, inclusive 0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
More than 1.2 million 0.00% +0.00% -3.00%

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