Started Aug 02, 2022 10:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 16, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Assuming that the Earth's global average surface temperature increases by 7°C in 2100 as compared to 1880, what will be the decadal average of annual deaths caused by floods in the world from 2091 to 2100, according to Our World in Data (OWiD)?

Measurements of global average surface temperature have increased since the 1880 (Climate.gov, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the OWiD (OWiD, see "Floods"). For 2020, there were 6,179 deaths caused by floods.

This question will be suspended on 15 October 2022. While forecasts on this question may be evaluated in the years to come, they will not be scored.

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NOTE 3 August 2022: One degree Celsius is equal to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, meaning that 7°C = 12.6°F.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Fewer than 10,000 23.40% +7.60% +7.60% -2.10%
Between 10,000 and 25,000, inclusive 15.50% -1.70% -1.70% -3.00%
More than 25,000 but fewer than 125,000 14.40% +6.00% +6.00% +0.60%
Between 125,000 and 500,000, inclusive 17.00% -3.80% -3.80% -1.80%
More than 500,000 29.70% -8.10% -8.10% +6.30%

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