Started Aug 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 16, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What will be the difference in the Earth's decadal average global surface temperature in 2091 to 2100 as compared to 1881 to 1890?

The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the UK's Met Office Hadley Centre (UK Met Office). To view the data, download the "Annual" file under "CSV" for "Global (NH+SH)/2" in the "Summary series" table. The difference will be determined by subtracting the "Anomaly (deg C)" average for 1881 to 1890 from the average for 2091 to 2100. The decadal average for 1881 to 1890 was -0.389351564°C. Please note that the data use 1961-1990 as a baseline, hence the negative figure for 1881-1890. .

This question will be suspended on 15 October 2022. While forecasts on this question may be evaluated in the years to come, they will not be scored.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Less than 1.00°C 9.00% +0.00% +0.00% +1.10%
Between 1.00°C and 2.00°C, inclusive 14.00% +0.00% +0.00% -3.80%
More than 2.00°C but less than 3.00°C 49.00% +0.00% +0.00% +1.90%
Between 3.00°C and 4.00°C, inclusive 16.00% +0.00% +0.00% +2.80%
More than 4.00°C but less than 5.00°C 5.00% +0.00% +0.00% +1.80%
Between 5.00°C and 6.00°C, inclusive 2.00% +0.00% +0.00% -0.40%
More than 6.00°C but less than 7.00°C 2.00% +0.00% +0.00% -1.50%
7.00°C or more 3.00% +0.00% +0.00% -1.90%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username