Started Sep 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 14, 2022 07:01AM UTC

What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 14 October 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?

The question will be suspended on 13 October 2022 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 28 August 2022, Biden's approval rating was 42.3%. The data for 14 October 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 17 October 2022.

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The question closed "Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%" with a closing date of 14 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 38.0% 1%
Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive 13%
Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0% 84%
Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive 2%
Higher than 50.0% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 200
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 172
Number of Forecasts 797
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 380
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.083
2.
-0.083
3.
-0.083
4.
-0.077
5.
-0.077

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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