What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 14 October 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?
Closed Oct 14, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The question will be suspended on 13 October 2022 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 28 August 2022, Biden's approval rating was 42.3%. The data for 14 October 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 17 October 2022.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%" with a closing date of 14 October 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 38.0% | 1% | |
| Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive | 13% | |
| Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0% | 84% | |
| Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive | 2% | |
| Higher than 50.0% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 200 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 215 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 797 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 606 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
