Before 1 January 2024, will Elizabeth "Liz" Truss cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?
Started
Sep 09, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 25, 2022 01:54PM UTC
Closed Oct 25, 2022 01:54PM UTC
Challenges
Liz Truss was appointed as the UK's prime minister on 6 September 2022, and faces a number of challenges, including Brexit, possible recession, and the death of Queen Elizabeth II (Gov.uk - Truss Biography, US News & World Report, Politico, NY Post).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 October 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99.80% | |
| No | 0.20% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 100 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 156 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 373 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 464 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |