Started Sep 09, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Oct 25, 2022 01:54PM UTC

Before 1 January 2024, will Elizabeth "Liz" Truss cease to be prime minister of the United Kingdom?

Liz Truss was appointed as the UK's prime minister on 6 September 2022, and faces a number of challenges, including Brexit, possible recession, and the death of Queen Elizabeth II (Gov.uk - Truss Biography, US News & World Report, Politico, NY Post).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 25 October 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99.80%
No 0.20%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 100
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 373
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 527
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.993
2.
-0.981
3.
-0.934
4.
-0.92
5.
-0.907

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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