Started Oct 07, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

How many new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported between 1 October 2022 and 31 March 2023?

Experts expect a new wave of COVID-19 infections in the winter of 2022-23 (US News & World Report, Nature). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CDC through and including 31 March 2023 at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 April 2023 (CDC COVID Data Tracker, click "Data Table for Daily Death Trends - The United States" under the chart, which includes a Download Data option). As of 6 October 2022, the CDC reported a total of 270,334 deaths attributed to COVID-19 between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Fewer than 50,000 1.00% +0.00% +0.00% -3.63%
Between 50,000 and 100,000, inclusive 84.00% +0.00% +3.00% +12.75%
More than 100,000 but fewer than 150,000 11.00% +0.00% -3.00% -7.50%
Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive 4.00% +0.00% +0.00% +1.62%
More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% -2.94%
Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% -0.13%
More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% -0.13%
350,000 or more 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% -0.06%

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