Started Oct 10, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 21, 2022 08:01AM UTC

How many cumulative confirmed cases of monkeypox will be reported in the world as of 20 November 2022?

Since early May 2022, monkeypox infections spread beyond the west and central African countries where it is endemic (Pan American Health Organization, CNBC, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 20 November 2022 and the outcome determined using data through and including 20 November 2022 as first reported by Our World in Data (OWiD) (OWiD). As of 5 October 2022, there were 70,993 cumulative confirmed cases of monkeypox in the world.

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The question closed "Between 76,000 and 88,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 21 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 76,000 2%
Between 76,000 and 88,000, inclusive 95%
More than 88,000 but fewer than 100,000 2%
Between 100,000 and 112,000, inclusive 0%
More than 112,000 but fewer than 124,000 0%
124,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 120
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 367
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 519
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.03
3.
-0.029
4.
-0.028
5.
-0.028

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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