To which political party will the prime minister elected after the next Pakistani general election belong?

Started Oct 14, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 31, 2023 02:00PM UTC

The next general election for Pakistan's National Assembly is due to be held no later than October 2023, but could be held sooner (NPR, Al Jazeera, Radio Pakistan). The Prime Minister is elected by the National Assembly within 21 days following the day of the general election (Pakistan Constitution, see Article 91). The question will be suspended the day before the general election once the general election date is set. The appointment of a caretaker prime minister would not count.

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The question closed "There will not be a general election held before 31 October 2023 or a prime minister will not be elected within 24 days of the general election" with a closing date of 31 October 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) [PML(N)] 6%
Pakistan Peoples Party [PPP] 7%
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf [PTI] 6%
Another party or no party 10%
There will not be a general election held before 31 October 2023 or a prime minister will not be elected within 24 days of the general election 71%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 47
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 189
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

3.
-0.299269
4.
-0.291525
5.
-0.289303

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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