Started Oct 24, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 24, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will be the total number of new cases of COVID-19 in the US between 24 October 2022 and 23 November 2022?

The question will be suspended on 23 November 2022 and the outcome determined using COVID-19 confirmed cases data as recorded in the Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE GitHub data repository for 24 October 2022 through and including 23 November 2022 (https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv, right-click on the “Download” button for options to save the text file of data to your computer). The total will be calculated by taking the sum of the 23 October 2022 column and subtracting it from the sum of the 23 November 2022 column, inclusive of all rows. The data will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 28 November 2022. As of the launch of this question, the total number of new cases of COVID-19 between 24 October 2021 and 23 November 2021 was reported as 2,513,325. If the named source changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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The question closed "More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,500,000" with a closing date of 24 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 500,000 2%
Between 500,000 and 1,000,000, inclusive 4%
More than 1,000,000 but fewer than 1,500,000 85%
Between 1,500,000 and 2,250,000, inclusive 6%
More than 2,250,000 but fewer than 3,250,000 2%
Between 3,250,000 and 4,750,000, inclusive 1%
More than 4,750,000 but fewer than 6,500,000 0%
6,500,000 or more 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 113
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 354
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 519
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.053
2.
-0.046
3.
-0.046
4.
-0.045
5.
-0.042

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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