The Economist asks:

Before 16 April 2023, will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Omicron represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?

Started Oct 28, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 14, 2023 06:00PM UTC

The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 and its lineages have been the dominant in the US since overtaking Delta in December 2021, though concerns remain over the emergence of a new variant as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere (US News & World Report, STAT, Deseret News). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States by week here: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions. For the week ending 22 October 2022, Omicron variants represented a combined 100.0% percent share of COVID lineages in the US (see "%Total"). The question would close as of the week for which the threshold is reached—and weeks including "Nowcast" estimates (i.e., columns with "NOWCAST" at the top) would count—or else the week ending 15 April 2023. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

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NOTE 1 January 2023: If the CDC reports a variant as being a subvariant of Omicron, then later ceases to designate that same variant as a subvariant of Omicron, that variant would not count as a variant other than Omicron for the purposes of this question.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 14 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 7.40%
No 92.60%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 211
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219
Number of Forecasts 498
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.064
3.
-0.064
5.
-0.064

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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