The Economist asks:

Before 16 April 2023, will a SARS-CoV-2 variant other than Omicron represent more than 70.0% of total COVID-19 cases in the US?

Started Oct 28, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 16, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 and its lineages have been the dominant in the US since overtaking Delta in December 2021, though concerns remain over the emergence of a new variant as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere (US News & World Report, STAT, Deseret News). The CDC estimates proportions of SARS-CoV-2 lineages circulating in the United States by week here: For the week ending 22 October 2022, Omicron variants represented a combined 100.0% percent share of COVID lineages in the US (see "%Total"). The question would close as of the week for which the threshold is reached—and weeks including "Nowcast" estimates (i.e., columns with "NOWCAST" at the top) would count—or else the week ending 15 April 2023. If the named sourced changes the way it presents the data, we will make the appropriate modifications to the resolution instructions.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 1 January 2023: If the CDC reports a variant as being a subvariant of Omicron, then later ceases to designate that same variant as a subvariant of Omicron, that variant would not count as a variant other than Omicron for the purposes of this question.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 13.70% +0.08% -0.05% -2.84%
No 86.30% -0.08% +0.05% +2.84%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username