Will Pedro Castillo cease to be the president of the Peru before 1 January 2024?
Started
Nov 11, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Dec 07, 2022 06:50PM UTC
Closed Dec 07, 2022 06:50PM UTC
Challenges
Left-wing President José Pedro Castillo Terrones won a close election in 2021 and has faced various challenges while in office (AP, US News & World Report, Voice of America).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 7 December 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 61.10% | |
| No | 38.90% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 19 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 203 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 43 |
| Average for questions in their first 6 months: 512 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
