Started Nov 11, 2022 06:00PM UTC   •   Closed Feb 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 1 February 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?

The question will be suspended on 31 January 2023 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 7 November 2022, Biden's approval rating was 41.4%. The data for 1 February 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 February 2023.

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The question closed "Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%" with a closing date of 1 February 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 38.0% 1%
Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive 25%
Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0% 74%
Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 50.0% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 102
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 591
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 519
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.121
2.
-0.113
3.
-0.097
4.
-0.09
5.
-0.062

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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