The Economist asks:

Will SpaceX's first Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 March 2023?

Started Nov 18, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

SpaceX is looking to launch its first orbital flight test as soon as December 2022, though obstacles remain (Economist, CNET, CNBC, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 13.08%
No 86.92%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 312
Average for questions older than 6 months: 210
Number of Forecasts 714
Average for questions older than 6 months: 596
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.347
2.
-0.347
3.
-0.347
4.
-0.347
5.
-0.347

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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