How many acres will be consumed by reported wildfires in the US in 2023?
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
The US is entering 2023 with a third year of La Niña and drought affecting various parts of the country (FOX Weather, San Francisco Standard, NIFC - Outlooks). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first released by the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) (NIFC - National Fire News, NIFC - Statistics, see Wildland Fire Summaries). In 2021, reported wildfires consumed 7,125,643 acres in the US (NIFC Wildland Fire Summary and Statistics Annual Report 2021, NIFC - Wildfires and Acres).
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The question closed "Fewer than 5.0 million" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 5.0 million | 95% | |
| Between 5.0 million and 6.5 million, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than 6.5 million but fewer than 8.0 million | 2% | |
| Between 8.0 million and 9.5 million, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than 9.5 million but fewer than 11.0 million | 0% | |
| Between 11.0 million and 12.5 million, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than 12.5 million | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 54 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 160 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 393 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 475 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
