When will Jair Bolsonaro return to Brazil?

Started Jan 20, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 30, 2023 09:37AM UTC
Challenges
Tags

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro left Brazil for Florida before President Lula's inauguration on 1 January 2023 (CNN). Brazil's Supreme Court is investigating actions by Bolsonaro supporters at various government buildings in Brasília on 8 January 2023 (AP, NPR).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Between 23 March 2023 and 22 May 2023" with a closing date of 30 March 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 20 February 2023 0%
Between 20 February 2023 and 22 March 2023 3%
Between 23 March 2023 and 22 May 2023 57%
Not before 23 May 2023 40%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 47
Average for questions older than 6 months: 203
Number of Forecasts 175
Average for questions older than 6 months: 579
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.284169
2.
-0.280397
4.
-0.21425
5.
-0.202144

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username