What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 1 May 2023, according to FiveThirtyEight?

Started Jan 27, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed May 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
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The question will be suspended on 30 April 2023 and the outcome determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 21 January 2023, Biden's approval rating was 42.2%. The data for 1 May 2023 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 May 2023.

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The question closed "Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0%" with a closing date of 1 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 38.0% 1%
Between 38.0% and 42.0%, inclusive 13%
Higher than 42.0% but lower than 46.0% 85%
Between 46.0% and 50.0%, inclusive 1%
Higher than 50.0% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 61
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219
Number of Forecasts 306
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.091
2.
-0.085
3.
-0.07
4.
-0.054

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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