Started Sep 06, 2016 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2017 07:59AM UTC

Will the merchandise value of Iran's imports and exports in 2016 exceed $140 billion?

Expectations that Iran's nuclear deal would quickly produce economic dividends are fading (Quartz, International Monetary Fund), and those struggles are reflected in the continuing shrinkage of Iran's trade with the world. This question will be resolved using quarterly merchandise trade values reported by the World Trade Organization on its website (or download the WTO dataset here). Data for "Iran, Islamic Rep. of" from the tabs "Imports" and "Exports" will be summed for Q1-Q4 2016 when they become available, most likely in April 2017. According to the data available in August 2016, the annual totals for 2014 and 2015 were $139.8 billion and $104.9 billion, respectively, and the total for Q1 2016 was $25 billion. Recommended Questions Before 18 October 2016, will there be a confrontation involving Iran's and another country's national military forces that produces at least one fatality in the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, or the Gulf of Oman? Will Iran officially lift its ban on either Facebook or Twitter before 1 October 2016? Will negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) be completed in 2016?


This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. The merchandise value of Iran's imports and exports for 2016 was $106 billion in total (Quarterly merchandise trade value). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.00%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 162
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 431
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.005
2.
-0.005
3.
-0.005
4.
-0.005
5.
-0.004

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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